2008 Congressional District Profiles: Prelude
In the new year, I will write a profile every week on the congressional races as they are shaping up in Pennsylvania. I will analyze each race in depth, looking at announced and potential candidate, and including historical data and trends. I’ll do every district in the state, including the PA-1(Brady) and PA-2(Fattah), whether Republicans have a chance of winning them or not. I hope to do about one a week before the primaries in late April. Most serious candidates have already announced, and only PA-8 and PA-11(come on, Lou!) may have developments. If necessary, I’ll post updates.
Looking at the map right now, PA-1 may have a serious primary, PA-4(Altmire) and PA-10(Carney) look like the best opportunities for GOP pickups, and PA-3(English) and PA-6(Gerlach) look like the best opportunities for Dem pickups, although the DCCC has not been nearly as successful in PA this time, mostly because of their large wins here in 2006. PA-11(Kanjorski), PA-13(Schwartz), PA-15(Dent), PA-8(Murphy), PA-17(Murphy), and PA-7 (Sestak) could all become competitive, depending on national conditions and challengers(PA-11 and PA-8 are most likely of these). Pennsylvania accounted for over a tenth of the Democrats national House seat gain in 2006, and if the GOP recaptures control, at least three victories will likely be in PA.
I should have PA-1 done by the end of this week.