The other day I had blogged about the requests for Hillary to step aside to proceed with the coronation of Senator Obama.
She’s got the momentum, the upcoming polls are looking her way, I think there’s no reason to.
Well, some disagree.
Matt Denton writes in…
The reason that people are calling for Hillary to bow down is because no matter how well she does she can’t go to the convention with more pledged delegates or a larger percentage of the popular vote than Obama. Because of the size of the lead that he has, and the fact that states portion out delegates proportionately it’s mathematically impossible for her to overtake him in pledged delegates.
He will lose PA most likely yes, but she will most likely only gain a few delegates, and she will probably lose whatever gains she makes in PA in North Carolina where Obama is expected to win by a large margin (he may even gain a larger lead after NC and she is so sure she will lose she is refusing to campaign or debate in NC). Even her “big” wins in OH and TX were completely erased by Obama’s one win in Mississippi.
So the only way she can win now is if:
A) Barack drops out because of a scandal or
B) She convinces the super delegates that he is unelectable (using the “Tanya Harding option”) and makes them push her over the edge.
As it is now Obama is guaranteed to go to the convention with democracy on his side.
For her to win she has to overturn the will of the voters, which is why no one is calling for Obama to drop out. And that is why the Obama supporters are holding up the sign that says “Do the Math”. I encourage you to do the math and you may concede that she should indeed drop out.
I had to laugh at the “democracy on his side” line… the Texas primary results are looking like Hillary won the vote counting, but Obama will win the delegates. But that’s not your fault Matt… it’s a weird system.
Matt also include a link to a Newsweek story, to a Jonathan Alter column, which does the (pre-Texas) math.
So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.
For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.
The Clintonites can spin to their heart’s content about how Obama can’t carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can’t close the deal. How they’ve got the Big Mo now.
Fortunately, that magnificent bastard, Karl Rove has the answer. (Also in Newsweek)
After the last Democratic Primary is held in early June, neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama will have enough votes from delegates elected in caucuses or primaries to be declared the nominee. Obama would have to win 76 percent and Clinton 98 percent of the 535 delegates that are at stake in the final eight contests. Neither will happen.
He provides five rules to the Democrats, gratis, to force a victory.
Too much to excerpt, but here’s some of the “most obvious”
Rule #1: Control the Convention Mechanism. If you set the rules, decide who votes, organize the event and control what is said, it’s almost impossible to lose. So while Democratic National Committee chief Howard Dean is ostensibly in charge, both candidates would be well advised to gain control of the levers of the convention.
That’s going to make the losers mad, though.
Rule #3: It’s All About Delegates. Delegates are political junkies. This is their moment in the spotlight. Don’t take them for granted. Make every effort to attend to their every legitimate (and legal) need. By now your campaign should have a massive set of binders with information on every delegate—their birthday, pet peeves, hobbies and interests. If not, get them started.
Nice. That will make the losers less mad.
While I see the futility of the election math, the final delegate count game is still on going… and that’s where I think Hillary still has her best shot… and the ultimate irony of it, is that it’s all by the Democrat rules… and by design.
Ulitimately, super delegate attrition will set in, and they’ll take sides. Whether or not it’s by Howard Dean’s July 1st “deadline” or not, I think it’ll be over before then.