Pennsylvania Will Matter on April 22nd February 5 2008
For Dems, any way.
Chris Bowers does the math.
From this point, quick math shows that after Super Tuesday, only 1,428 pledged delegates will still be available. Now, here is where the problem shows up. According to current polling averages, the largest possible victory for either candidate on Super Tuesday will be Clinton 889 pledged delegates, to 799 pledged delegates for Obama. (In all likelihood, the winning margin will be lower than this, but using these numbers helps emphasize the seriousness of the situation.) As such, the largest possible pledged delegate margin Clinton can have after Super Tuesday is 937 to 862. (While it is possible Obama will lead in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday, it does not currently seem possible for Obama to have a larger lead than 75). That leaves Clinton 1,088 pledged delegates from clinching the nomination, with only 1,428 pledged delegates remaining. Thus, in order to win the nomination without the aid of super delegates, in her best-case scenario after Super Tuesday, Clinton would need to win 76.2% of all remaining pledged delegates. Given our proportional delegate system, there is simply no way that is going to happen unless Obama drops out.
Tip to Patrick Ruffini who adds:
Unless Geraghty the Indispensable’s exits tell us that one candidate is crashing and burning tonight, bank on some variant of the above to unfold. That does not mean brokered convention (with two candidates remaining, it’s unlikely), but barring a dramatic momentum shift it means Clinton/Obama will go on at least until Pennsylvania on April 22nd.
The scary thing about April 22nd, is that it comes 40+ days after the previous primary in Mississippi.
Why is that scary? We’ll be bombarded, bombarded, with Hillary & Obama ads, media events etc… for six weeks. Exclusively.
So much for arguing to advance the primaries! We’ll be sick of politicians before the day comes.
Better still, potential blue on blue convention madness. (read and enjoy)
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