Specter: between a rock and a hard place on EFCA March 16 2009
In today’s WSJ Political Diary (subscribers only), John Fund analyzes Specter’s very limited options regarding another run for the Senate:
Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter has threaded political needles before, but that’s nothing like the dilemma he faces over the “card check” bill that would water down requirements that labor organizers hold secret ballot elections to certify union representation of workplaces.
On one side, conservatives are expecting Mr. Specter to redeem himself for his signature role in getting President Obama’s stimulus package passed in the Senate. The five-term senator faces another rough primary against Club For Growth President Pat Toomey, who almost beat him in 2004. On the other side, Pennsylvania union leaders are promising Mr. Specter that if he backs card check, they will convince union members to join the GOP to save him from a primary defeat.
Pennsylvania AFL-CIO President William M. George told the Washington Times he is “pushing hard to help [Mr. Specter] in the primary, including changing Democrats to Republicans.”
But Mr. George also warned what the consequences would be if Mr. Specter reverses his earlier support for card check. “If he votes against us,” Mr. George said, “we will rise the intensity, possibly with another candidate and possibly another moderate in the Republican Party.”
In the end, political handicappers believe Mr. Specter will try once again to split the difference on a controversial issue, reminiscent of his famous invocation of “Scottish law” in voting “present” on the issue of convicting President Bill Clinton in his 1999 impeachment trial. One way would be to oppose the most extreme version of the card check bill that would effectively end secret ballot elections while supporting a more modest compromise.
As for the challenge he faces from Mr. Toomey in next year’s GOP primary, Mr. Specter always has the option of following the example of Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman and becoming an independent. “If he dropped out of the GOP primary, he would have maximum flexibility on card check, avoid the possibility of a primary loss and could squeak through in the general election with as little as 35% of the vote,” says a longtime Specter friend.
Whatever Mr. Specter decides, you can bet he will be the object of intense political courting in a Senate where Democrats are always only a vote or two away from achieving the 60 votes needed to cut off filibusters and enact controversial bills.
Actually, there are few places that are worse for conservatives than between enacting a liberal bill and Specter’s senate ambitions.
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