PAWaterCooler.com

Susan Boyer:

As I have predicted before, I believe Obama is toast. While he may win the Dem nomination, he will never win the presidency. His judgement in associating with radicals (Wright isn’t the only one) along with his thin resume cannot be overcome with flowery rhetoric and the help of the mainstream media which can no longer control the flow of information.

Hillary suspects this is the case and her plan is to garner a reputation as a fighter and circle the wagons of her supporters in preparation for a reprise in 2012. McCain will be too old to run again and voters will have seen Obama go down in flames. Hillary will be poised to come to the rescue of a Democrat party licking its wounds. She won’t need to say “I told you so”. The electoral college will have already made the point for her.

Yeah, Jeff, I’m liking reason number one.

There’s something refreshingly satisfying about seeing someone driven by ambition willing to destroy that which has gotten them there.

Email AlexC, Start the discussion or Share This...

1) The Obvious Reason- Because I am an evil Republican, and I enjoy watching the Democrat’s destroy themselves.

2) If she wins all or most(all except NC) the remaining primaries, she has a nontrivial cahnce of overtaking Obama in the popular vote. This does severe damage to Obama’s argument to the supers.

3) To give everyone a vote(nice propaganda, eh?).

4) Following on #2, if they are within 50 or so delegates, and she is close or leading the popular vote, she can make an argument to the Credentials Committee to seat at least Florida, giving her a net plus of about 40 delegates. Should the Dem race continue to Denver, the makeup of the Credentials Committee will be the primary battle, and it might be where she wins the nomination.

5) If party “elders” try to intervene and give it to Gore, she can make it a floor fight between her and Gore. She can run against “smoke-filled rooms”, and argue that party leaders see Obama’s weakness, but they refuse to give it to her instead.  

That’s all for now.

Email Jeff Moyer, Start the discussion or Share This...

Well, he didn’t exactly say it.

He just said he can’t be a vice president because he’s too truthful.

MATTHEWS: But I think Barack has a better chance if you’re his running mate. Would you be available, Governor, to be a running-mate with Barack Obama–

RENDELL: No –

MATTHEWS: or Hillary Clinton?

RENDELL: I said I’m going to finish my term here. And who in their right mind would want someone like me to be their running mate? You know, if they came up and said what do you think about the presidential candidate’s environmental policy that he released today, I’d say “fair, you know, fair.” You know, I have this, this problem of telling the truth all the time.

Governor Rendell, I’m sure there’s about a thousand questions your friends in the legislature and the media would like answered truthfully.

Where do we begin?

Email AlexC, Start the discussion or Share This...

Really!

The suspect?

Panzarotti.

… and it looks awesome.

Email AlexC, Start the discussion or Share This...

The other day I had blogged about the requests for Hillary to step aside to proceed with the coronation of Senator Obama.

She’s got the momentum, the upcoming polls are looking her way, I think there’s no reason to.

Well, some disagree.

Matt Denton writes in…

The reason that people are calling for Hillary to bow down is because no matter how well she does she can’t go to the convention with more pledged delegates or a larger percentage of the popular vote than Obama. Because of the size of the lead that he has, and the fact that states portion out delegates proportionately it’s mathematically impossible for her to overtake him in pledged delegates.

He will lose PA most likely yes, but she will most likely only gain a few delegates, and she will probably lose whatever gains she makes in PA in North Carolina where Obama is expected to win by a large margin (he may even gain a larger lead after NC and she is so sure she will lose she is refusing to campaign or debate in NC). Even her “big” wins in OH and TX were completely erased by Obama’s one win in Mississippi.

So the only way she can win now is if:
A) Barack drops out because of a scandal or
B) She convinces the super delegates that he is unelectable (using the “Tanya Harding option”) and makes them push her over the edge.

As it is now Obama is guaranteed to go to the convention with democracy on his side.

For her to win she has to overturn the will of the voters, which is why no one is calling for Obama to drop out. And that is why the Obama supporters are holding up the sign that says “Do the Math”. I encourage you to do the math and you may concede that she should indeed drop out.

I had to laugh at the “democracy on his side” line… the Texas primary results are looking like Hillary won the vote counting, but Obama will win the delegates. But that’s not your fault Matt… it’s a weird system.

Matt also include a link to a Newsweek story, to a Jonathan Alter column, which does the (pre-Texas) math.

So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.

For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.

The Clintonites can spin to their heart’s content about how Obama can’t carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can’t close the deal. How they’ve got the Big Mo now.

Fortunately, that magnificent bastard, Karl Rove has the answer. (Also in Newsweek)

After the last Democratic Primary is held in early June, neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama will have enough votes from delegates elected in caucuses or primaries to be declared the nominee. Obama would have to win 76 percent and Clinton 98 percent of the 535 delegates that are at stake in the final eight contests. Neither will happen.

He provides five rules to the Democrats, gratis, to force a victory.

Too much to excerpt, but here’s some of the “most obvious”

Rule #1: Control the Convention Mechanism. If you set the rules, decide who votes, organize the event and control what is said, it’s almost impossible to lose. So while Democratic National Committee chief Howard Dean is ostensibly in charge, both candidates would be well advised to gain control of the levers of the convention.

That’s going to make the losers mad, though.

Rule #3: It’s All About Delegates. Delegates are political junkies. This is their moment in the spotlight. Don’t take them for granted. Make every effort to attend to their every legitimate (and legal) need. By now your campaign should have a massive set of binders with information on every delegate—their birthday, pet peeves, hobbies and interests. If not, get them started.

Nice. That will make the losers less mad.

While I see the futility of the election math, the final delegate count game is still on going… and that’s where I think Hillary still has her best shot… and the ultimate irony of it, is that it’s all by the Democrat rules… and by design.

Ulitimately, super delegate attrition will set in, and they’ll take sides. Whether or not it’s by Howard Dean’s July 1st “deadline” or not, I think it’ll be over before then.

Email AlexC, Start the discussion or Share This...

Three years ago today, an innocent disabled woman who was not terminally ill was put to death by order of the government. She was executed over a period of thirteen days by being denied food and water. It was an abomination which we would not allow to happen to even the worst enemies of America, and yet we did it to a woman who had committed no crime.

Pro-life America will never forget!

Email John Lewandowski, Start the discussion or Share This...

Headline at CBS3.com:

Phillies Get Their Balls Blessed For Opening Day

This is a good thing. We all remember what happened to former Phillie John Kruk.

Pastor Jeff Raffauf, Father Joe Campellone and Rabbi Gregory Marx were on hand to offer a blessing of good luck to the Phillies. This year the team and the fans are praying for a championship season.

The three men of faith gathered in front the statue of Mike Schmidt to offer their blessings to the opening day game balls.

“May it be thy will that the Phillies go onto victory with a strong hand and outstretched spirit, bats of iron, gloves of gold, pitchers who are exact in their skill and the spirit of Mike Schmidt that inspires not only the players, but also the fans,” Rabbi Marx said.

Email AlexC, Start the discussion or Share This...

Last Saturday afternoon, I received an excited phone call from my sister Amy, who told me that she was with some friends in a pub beneath a bowling alley. The Secret Service had arrived and did their Secret Service thaang, and now Barack Obama was upstairs bowling a game.

Amy’s a McCain supporter, a solid Republican, but she was excited. I told her that, no matter our political party, Barry’s candidacy was history. Plus, that morning, the local paper (Altoona Mirror) had run an article about how we’re so Republican and our State’s primary so irrelevant that all Presidential candidates ignore this county.

Amy called back about half an hour later to tell me that she got a picture, and it’s below. My sister was forced to stand next to Junior Casey, while a friend is pictured next to Barry. Please not that the three folks on the left – Barry, the friend, and Amy – are smiling, happy to be a part of a small even in Campaign 2008, while Junior Casey seems unsure of where he is.

Great fun was had by all (except for Junior, who looks like he might have been murmuring).

Email Mark Kilmer, Start the discussion or Share This...

NBC10.com

A group of Slippery Rock University students want to enact a $5 per semester green fee.
The fee would generate about $80,000 annually from the school’s 8,000 students. An advisory board would oversee the funds and determine which environmentally friendly programs would receive the money.

Organizers of the proposal belong to Leave It Green. They collected 700 signatures on a petition, forcing a campuswide student referendum from April 7 to April 9. On Friday, the group will meet with the university’s council of trustees to discuss the plan.

Strangely, the 700 petitioners decided that giving $60 out of their own pockets twice a year is too much burden for them to bear for their own good idea.

They’ll make fine Democrats.

Email AlexC, Start the discussion or Share This...

Hmm… Is this a lowering of expectations?

Gov. Ed Rendell predicted Monday that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s lead over Sen. Barack Obama will shrink before the April 22 primary.

“We have a very strong lead, but I think that lead is going to shrink,” Rendell, a Clinton supporter, said on ABC-TV’s “Good Morning America.”

Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., an Obama supporter, agreed that Obama is “the underdog in our state.”

Wow. Profound. Senator Casey is a regular Karl Rove.

Governor Rendell is Hillary’s biggest booster in the Keystone State. Look for this to be the first one of the “we’re not going to win” huge messages from the Clintonistas in the coming days/weeks.

Email AlexC, Start the discussion or Share This...

Bummer.

The biggest factor in the race for the Democratic nomination for state treasurer may not be any of the four candidates, but the high-profile presidential battle at the top of the April 22 primary ballot.

Five-term state Rep. Jennifer Mann of Lehigh County, the only woman in the race, sees the potential for a coattail effect working in her favor if Clinton’s candidacy draws a large turnout by women.

”It’s made it difficult to get attention,” said John Cordisco, a Bucks County lawyer and former legislator who is among the candidates. ”It’s taken all the wind … out of the room.”

The Republican side is even quieter. The only person on the ballot is former Montgomery County Commissioner Tom Ellis.

I did get an email from Henry Hershey, who is planning a write-in for the GOP nod, but you know how those go. A statewide write in? Good luck with that.

Email AlexC, Start the discussion or Share This...

Vlahos & Nutter
The 911 System
Matthews on Parade

(more…)

Email AlexC, Start the discussion or Share This...

(a recurring series, for all click here)

Our fourteenth congressional district returns us to the western edge of the state, to the city of Pittsburgh on the banks of the Allegheny. This district composes the entire city and several of its closer working class suburbs, like Mon Valley and Clairton. Once a center of industry, Pittsburg played host to captains of industry like Andrew Carnegie and Henry Clay Frick. US Steel once had most of its operations in the area, and for a time the city was producing a third of the world’s steel. After the steel industry collapsed in the late 20th century, the city’s economy shifted to tourism and it’s population dropped by more than half. The city, which once was one of the biggest cities in the Northeast, now is close to being surpassed by other growing cities in Pennsylvania such as Allentown. The city is also well known for both its clean streets, and its numerous types of bridges. Being a union town, Democrats have dominated city politics and those of surrounding Allegheny County since the New Deal. The city, while fairly liberal, does have an active Republican Party, and the city’s strong Catholic roots allow for a socially conservative bent to many local politicians. Bush carried 30% of the vote here in 2004. The 14th has not had a competitive election since 2000.

Pittsburgh’s representative is Congressman Mike Doyle, who was first elected in 1994 to replace Rick Santorum. Doyle started out as an insurance agent before entering politics in 1977. He initially rose up through Republican ranks, eventually serving as chief of staff to state senator Frank Pecora. Doyle switched parties with his mentor in 1992, and then proceeded to run for Santorum’s district after Pecora was defeated for the same seat in 1992. His election went against the trend for that year, and he was one of only several freshman Democrats of the 104th Congress. In 2002 his district was combined with that of fellow Democrat Bill Coyne, and Coyne’s retirement was the only thing that prevented a potentially bloody primary. Doyle has kept a low profile for himself in Congress, and he is well liked in his district, even among all sometimes divisive sections of Pittsburgh. His voting record belies his Catholic origins, which makes him a good fit for his district.

There are no Republicans on the ballot to challenge Doyle. Republicans have not even bothered to file against him for the past three cycles. In 2002 and 2004 he faced no opposition; in 2006 he was opposed by Green Party candidate Titus North, who garnered 10% of the vote against Doyle. Doyle’s low profile and voting record have not raised any significant opposition from within his own party, and he has not faced a primary challenge this decade. This seat will remain in Democratic hands for the foreseeable future.

District Statistics

2006 Election
Mike Doyle(D)- 90%
Titus North(Green)- 10%

2004 Election
Mike Doyle(D)- 100%

Kerry(D)- 69%
Bush(R)- 30%

2002 Election
Mike Doyle(D)- 100%

Sources:
Wikipedia
Michael Barone’s Almanac
Politics1

Email Jeff Moyer, Start the discussion or Share This...

 (a recurring series, for all click here)

Pennsylvania’s 13th Congressional district takes us back to the Philadelphia suburbs for the last time, and is the last congressional district that is in Montgomery County. The 13th district forms a long jagged box that starts out in northern Philadelphia and the border with New Jersey, and extends out into the newly settled suburbs of Montgomery County. This district, like the other congressional districts that compose the area, was once part of the vast GOP machine of Philadelphia. After the breakup of this machine in the years after the New Deal, Montgomery County stayed fairly Republican until the end of the Cold War, when it started to trend to Democrats at the national level. Despite this, Republicans dominated the county level until 2007, when Democrats made significant gains, taking advantage of a divided Republican party. However, since the district is split between Montgomery County and Philadelphia, it has been giving Democrats significant margins for almost two decades. Kerry dominated Bush here by a fairly large margin, and Bush barely increased his vote share, indicating the uphill battle the GOP has to fight to win here. Republicans did have success at retaining the seat in spite of this, electing Lawrence Coughlin for twelve terms before his retirement in 1992. Later that decade, frequent candidate Joe Hoeffel won after seeking the seat for the fourth time in twenty years, including one narrow 84 vote loss in 1996. Republicans held Hoeffel to two close victories, including a strong challenge by moderate eye doctor Melissa Brown in 2002, before he retired to run for Senate two years later.

Hoeffel’s successor is current congresswoman Allyson Schwartz, who is the only female member of Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation. A child of a Nazi war victim who fled Austria, Schwartz worked in the health care field before she stared her political career in 1990 with a run for state Senate. She first made a name for herself statewide with a run for the US Senate in 2000, and after finishing second in the Democratic primary, she ran to succeed Joe Hoeffel when he ran against Arlen Specter in 2004. After disposing of former Rendell aide Joe Torsella by a narrow margin in the primary, she faced Brown in the general election, and most of the election was spent on health care issues. She was given large amounts of help from lobbying groups like Emily’s List, and the two women fought the election out to the end. Schwartz defeated Brown and outraised her by three-to-one, and she won both parts of the district in the election. In Congress, Schwartz has been an advocate for national health care reform and has been a loyal Democrat on most issues. She has not singled herself out in many ways, and has maintained fairly high ratings from her constituents.

Schwartz showed an impressive acumen for fundraising in the 2004 battle, raising most of her 4.5 million from individual donors and little from PACs. She has amassed a large amount in the past four years, but spent an impressive amount to defeat 2006 opponent Raj Bhakta, who mostly succeeded in destroying himself. Bhakta, was widely viewed as an embarrassment to the local party, and was widely criticized and ridiculed for his two DUI arrests and his stint on The Apprentice. Over the past year, Schwartz has well over a million to burn in the upcoming election, and with no primary opponent, she is going to have little trouble raising more. The only GOP candidate for this cycle seems to be Marina Kats, a lawyer from Abington. This sets up this election as the second in three elections to feature two women running against each other. Kats has a large personal fortune, and seems willing to burn some of that to get elected, which is almost a necessity against this popular incumbent with deep pockets and many donors. Kats will need to make a convincing argument for voters to dump this popular incumbent. She may have a hard time reaching Melissa Brown’s vote total in 2002, much less enough to win the seat.

District Statistics

2006 Election
Allyson Schwatrz(D)- 66%
Raj Bhakta(R) 34%

2004 Election
Allyson Schwartz(D)- 56%
Melissa Brown(R) 41%

Kerry(D)- 56%
Bush(R)- 42%

2002 Election
Joe Hoeffel(D)- 51%
Melissa Brown(R) 47%

Sources:
Wikipedia
Michael Barone’s Almanac
Politics1

Email Jeff Moyer, Start the discussion or Share This...

I don’t quite understand the calls for Hillary to drop out the race.

She’s got some momentum recently, is sure to win Pa, and its looking good in the remaining contests.

Neither will get the number needed, yet, there are calls for her to drop out.

Why not Barry?

(tip to Andy Roth for the image)

Email AlexC, Join the discussion or Share This...

The last Democrat to address the Klan was …

Right.

Robert Byrd, Senator from West Virginia.

Senator Obama will be taking it to the streets.

A campaign official said it is part of Obama’s larger goal of winning over some of the county’s high concentration of white supremacist voters. “If we’re going to win over Central Pennsylvania, we’re going to need a good chunk of the hate vote,” said campaign spokesman Sean Smith.

Several racists said they are looking forward to the senator’s visit. “While I never imagined I’d want to vote for a black man, I’m very intrigued by his promise to bring about change,” said Glenn Herdall, president of York County’s White United Party. Herdall said he and local Klan leaders plan to “roll out the white carpet” for Obama’s appearance.

Democrat bigots need representation after all.

everyone calm down, i know what it is.

Email AlexC, Start the discussion or Share This...

It’s well known by well, pretty much anyone that the Clintons have a long history of trying to destory their opposition. Usually, though, you only hear about this from conservatives. But the liberal icon is starting to make her own party nervous.

From myway: “Some Obama supporters question Clinton’s motives: They suggest she is counting on a stunning gaffe or shocking revelation to cripple Obama and hand her the nomination. Others float a more sinister possibility, which has found its way into mainstream news accounts: Clinton hopes to damage Obama so severely that he loses to McCain this fall, clearing her path to challenge McCain in 2012, when he will be 75. Clinton scoffs at such suggestions, and calls on voters to support whomever is the Democratic nominee in November.”

Did the media just suggest Clinton might be up to something sinister? And did they also speculate that she might try to covertly sabotage Obamas campaign? Nooooooo….. 

Email Richard Tennesen, Start the discussion or Share This...

Liberals love abortion! The pro-death politics of liberals has one tremendous flaw that no one clever enough in the media ever brings up: irony. The irony of liberals defense and promotion of abotion is this: how can the party who claims to care about the rights and well-being of all Americans, so much so that they are campaigning on a platform for Nationalized health care also be advocates for baby killing? I would love anyone to ask this of either Hillary or Barack. 

BTW: Having knowlege of what actually happens in the O.R. during an aborion I can tell you it is not by any means what I consider a miracle.

Email Richard Tennesen, Start the discussion or Share This...

His big defense to Jeremiah Wright was this rebuking of the media, “just take soundbites at random over the past 20 years and…” Here’s the problem with that: when do you suppose it was he made these statements about us being a racist nation? He said Hillary doesn’t know what it’s like to be called a nigger (his words). Was that 20 years ago?

Whatever media loser obtained that poor-at-best excuse for a defense of Rev. Wright was obviously a liberal unwilling to fire back. Now, media all over is saying, “Look, Barack even said most of this is cut and paste soundbites.” And whatever he says goes. The media has made it seem as though these statements were all made long long ago – not so.

And finally, should it matter how long ago something of poor taste came out of ones mouth? He shouldn’t have said half of those things to begin with. If I were to run for office today they’d have a field trip with some of my positions and statements in the past.

Unlucky for me, I won’t just be able to dismiss them…know why: I mean what I say and I say what I mean! Not to mention that I speak with lended credibility.

Email Richard Tennesen, Start the discussion or Share This...

Alex, the positions of pro-abortion politicians never make any sense.

As you said, Obama tells us that his children are miracles, then goes on to say that children are a punishment. He also seems to want some stranger to teach his kids about sex instead of him teaching them himself, as he advocates comprehensive sex ed programs. Liberals are constantly advocating this kind of lazy parenting – why is it not seen as irresponsible?

Rudy Giuliani told us that he “hates” abortion. Yet he favored it being legal anyway. Why do you hate abortion, Rudy? Is it because it takes a life? And if it takes a life, should it be legal?

Hillary Clinton has told us that she wants to reduce abortions – “safe, legal, and rare”. Yet if you don’t think that abortion takes a life, who cares how rare it is?

This argument that we need to “trust women” is absolutely absurd. Do we “trust women” if they “choose” to drown their born children? Do we “trust women” if they “choose” to shoot their husbands? Of course not. So why on earth do we “trust women” to abort their unborn children?

The fact of the matter is that Obama is the most pro-abortion person in the Senate by his own admission. But it’s no surprise that he was once again trying to make himself look like a moderate on yet another issue, when in reality he is a far-left extremist.

Email John Lewandowski, Start the discussion or Share This...