PAWaterCooler.com

Maybe, maybe, maybe.

Now comes word that, after sitting out a 2008 rematch against Democratic U.S. Rep Patrick Murphy, who defeated him in 2006, former U.S. Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick may be ready to challenge Murphy in the Eighth District, which covers Bucks County and parts of Montgomery County and the Northeast.

Harry Fawkes, Bucks County GOP chairman, said Friday that he expected a decision from Fitzpatrick within five days. He said Fitzpatrick would give Republicans a “pretty good” shot at winning.

The GOP has also set its eyes on a number of other Democratic seats in Pennsylvania that it thinks are in play because of the shifting national mood. An early hint of that might have been seen in November, when Republicans won six of seven appellate-court judicial races in Pennsylvania.

But as the Republican Party goes on offense, it must try to defend the ground it holds. That’s where Gerlach comes in.

A battle-tested candidate, Gerlach can expect big-money support from the National Republican Congressional Committee in his effort to retain GOP control of the Sixth District, which spans portions of Chester, Montgomery, and Berks Counties.

Gerlach said Thursday that he was dropping out of the May 18 gubernatorial primary because he was having trouble raising money for a statewide campaign.

After he announced Friday that he would run again for his House seat, Congressional Quarterly moved the contest from its widely watched “toss-up” list to its “leans Republican” list.

“Gerlach has saved that seat for Republicans. I think they would have lost it otherwise,” said Larry J. Sabato, who conducts election forecasting at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Best quotes come from Montgomery County Democrat Chairman Marcel Groen…

Marcel Groen, veteran Democratic chairman of Montgomery County, said Gerlach was probably the front-runner. Democrats haven’t sorted out their crowded field of primary candidates.

But Groen said Democrats would concede nothing to the GOP this year – not in the suburbs, not elsewhere in Pennsylvania, not anywhere.

“Twelve months ago, Democrats assumed that the Republican Party in the Northeast was dead,” Groen said. “We were wrong . . . but they haven’t accomplished much yet.”

The election was in November and the victors took office last week.

.. said Mr Groen, who despite a 30000 vote registration advantage, lost six of seven judicial elections in his home county. Big words from the man who was the architect of the Pampers and Luvs campaign. “We dont have any Democrat judges in Montco, waaaaaaah.”

All that being said, it’s good news in Bucks County is Mike Fitzpatrick comes back. “Blue Dog” Patrick Murphy has gotten a slide on his liberal record for far too long.

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I acknowledge depending on me for anecdotal evidence on what the hoi polloi think is generally a poor strategy.

But one thing I am NOT hearing regarding Jim Gerlach’s decision to finally settle, for now, on running for his old Congressional seat is this:

Oh, that’s great. I really wasn’t that crazy about any of the other candidates, and he’s a wonderful Congressman. This will ensure we win the seat, and that’s the most important thing.

This is pretty much Gerlach’s pitch, but I have heard it from exactly one person. And I have spoken to probably about fifteen committeepeople about this mess.

But, as everyone knows, I like Curt Schroder, and the people I talk to may not exactly be a representative sample. My biases– and identity– are as transparent as Marsh Creek ice. Unlike that of, say, some of our commenters. Anyone sensing a different pulse from the street than I am?

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I break some news in here. Read on, and see if you can guess what it is!

Jim Gerlach announcing his premature ejection from the gubernatorial race was only a surprise because, if this was his plan, we would have expected him to back out already. He never got any traction. His own county chairman– a man Jim made look good by winning close election after close election– wouldn’t get behind him early, and completely screwed him by outright endorsing Corbett about a month ago.

Does this mean Jim will want his old Congressional seat back? The one in which  four or five Republicans have already declared interest?

Well, maybe. Let’s think this through.

Jim did not call and tell the other campaigns he WASN’T interested in the seat The easiest course for Jim and his campaign stash is for him to run again for his seat via an uncontested primary.

Millionaire and recent Democrat Steve Welch is in this race, and was persuaded to switch to it by party committee types to clear the way for another gubernatorial flame-out: Pat Meehan. So Steve, one would hope, is finally done listening to those people, and perhaps in his heart of hearts wishes he listened to the regular voters who told him to stay in PA7 in the first place.

As an aside, I should acknowledge flameout is a little harsh. All the committee bigwigs lined up behind Corbett early. Meehan and Gerlach were never seriously considered by them, and were treated poorly. By extension, those party types basically gave the finger to voters in PA6 and PA7 by trying to dictate how their congressional primaries would go from Harrisburg.

Curt Schroder, by most accounts the frontrunner in this primary right now, has been intending to run this race for a long time. Gerlach waited a long time before officially declaring, and now he’s backed out pretty darned late. I don’t have any inside information on this one, but I would wager Schroder isn’t particular interested in stepping aside at this point. That dude is ready to rumble.

What about the others: Cohen, Sellers, and that other dude I got mail from today? What’s his name? The geologist with solar panels on his house?

Well, what they think is pretty inconsequential, except for the fact that the more crowded the primary, the better their respectively small chances will be. So Gerlach coming in probably won’t chase any of them out. Except for Cohen, maybe, who is trying to run on the “I already know how Washington works, because I’ve been there!” platform. As if that were a recommendation.

So my guess is Gerlach is trying to figure out if the others will get out of his way. They will say no. Then Jim will consider the Lt. Governor’s race. Personally, I think that’s ideal for him. He can increase his name-recognition across the whole Commonwealth by running in that race, prepping himself for Governor or Senate.

Thing is, that’s what the state party dudes have been telling him to do all along. And Jim is cheesed at those dudes. A while back he expressed some interest to have talks with Curt Schroder about an endorsement swap. This would have been weird for him to do, since the primary field was so crowded, and one of Curt’s opponents had a conceivable chance of winning.

I think Jim considered it because he knew Curt was not the favorite of the party leaders, but of the party grassroots. And, at least partly, this was a way for him to make a little dig at those leaders.

So, is Jim prepared to do what those same leaders always wanted him to do, which was run for Lt. Governor? Does he want to drop a nuclear daisy-cutter on PA6 and create one of the biggest clusterf**k primaries of all time? Does he actually feel like practicing law or becoming a government affairs specialist at Merck, making himself very wealthy without having to work much, but spiking his further political career? Is he rich enough to do nothing, and just start running for Senate?

If the last one is not possible– and I don’t know one way or the other– expect him to do the first one. Jim did not get this far by thinking too far outside the box. We should expect this pattern to continue.

UPDATE

Shows you what I know:

http://www.rollcall.com/news/42090-1.html

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The PA Supreme Court made a decision today defending the Commonwealth Constitution. While it is not earthshattering, it is a nice, modest case study of a public servant doing the right thing even when it did not serve his short-term political interests.

Back in 2006, Phoenixville’s Borough Council tried to eliminate the compensation of its members. It was political grandstanding, as the Borough faced a multi-million dollar budgetary shortfall, and the total annual compensation of all of them was less than twenty grand. Kendrick Buckwalter, a councilman, realized 1) That this was unconstitutional, and 2) Would establish a precedent for Council to change compensation levels in the middle of their terms, theoretically permitting them to RAISE their pay as well.

Buckwalter sued, with the help of local attorney Richard Breuer. This is despite the fact that it would make it look like Ken was suing to keep his $200/month before facing reelection during the year of the Harrisburg pay raise debacle. Thankfully, he did end up winning reelection.

But pursuing the case made his reelection more difficult. Ken did it because it was the right thing to do, not because it made his life any easier. The Supreme Court in Kendrick Buckwalter v. Borough of Phoenixville has concurred that he was right all along.

A small victory, sure. But any victory defending the Constitution is one to be applauded, especially when someone puts their political position on the line to do it.

Coverage in the local paper here.

Congratulate Ken at his blog here.

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Just got word of this event in West Chester. Please join us or share this information with those that may be interested in participating in this event.

“Christmas Carol Sing-A-Long” by the Nativity Display

Christmas Eve

At the Courthouse on the corner of High St and Market St

West Chester, PA 19380

Starts at Noon. Will last about 30 minutes.

Suggest arriving early.

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The Schroder campaign has its official kick-off event last night at the Ludwig’s Corner firehouse. By all estimates it was a great success.

There were, easily, two hundred people there. Perhaps even more. I would wager virtually all of them were actual voters in the sixth congressional district. This certainly appeared to exceed expectations. They had to roll out about three times the initial number of tables, and the hall was still standing room only.

Introducing Curt were a number of area luminaries. Not exactly household names– except perhaps for former Congressman Bob Walker– but people very well known to those who vote in GOP primaries: Berks Commissioner Christain Leinbach, former Chesco Commissioner Colin Hanna, former State Rep. Carol Rubley, and others.

And this is what indicates what the Schroder campaign can do that no other candidate for this office can pull off. Heck, you could probably count on one hand the number of politicians NATIONALLY that can pull this off:

For this office he has already lined up a range of endorsements that no other candidate can even come within the same universe of matching. At the same time, Schroder offers a message as a legitimate Republican outsider. Congressman Walker, while introducing him, lambasted current national GOP leadership And last night Rep. Schroder talked about introducing legislative reforms opposed by leaders in both parties, standing against recently indicted former GOP speaker Perzel, auditing the Fed, taking on the trial lawyer lobby, and supporting the rights of property-owners against gas line companies.

So Schroder has a very solid record as a man willing to make tough votes against his own party. This is why folks in both the Tea Party movement and those coming from the Ron Paul end of the party tend to support him. And yet, at the same time, he actually has a mainstream conservative legislative track record and is supported by office-holders all over the Republican party, if not, perhaps, by those leading the GOP committee.

The size and enthusiasm of the crowd last night confirmed that Schroder is able to thread this needle. Anyone who thinks the size of someone else’s wallet makes that person a front-runner simply isn’t paying attention to actual voters.

Oh, and for the record: He didn’t once mention primary opponent Steve Welch’s address, or the fact he was a registered Democrat last year. So our friend at www.pa2010.com may want to revise and extend his remarks that he expected Rep. Schroder to “make an issue” of these things.

Frankly, though, this is a GOP primary. Is the Schroder campaign supposed to pretend they aren’t running against a former Democrat?

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Just a reminder that the kickoff Center-Right Coalition meeting, modeled after national tax-reform leader Grover Norquist’s successful format, is TOMORROW MORNING, Thursday, November 12, at the Union League in Philadelphia, with Mr. Norquist in attendance.

Light refreshments will be served at 7:00 AM, with the program going from 7:30 to 9:00 (or later). The Union League is located at 140 S. Broad Street, just two blocks south of City Hall. Even if you can join us for part of the meeting, your attendance and that of your colleagues, is most welcome.

The objective is for those of the center-right to inform each other of current initiatives, share technology and tactics, and tell stories regarding issues facing Pennsylvania and the nation.

Anyone who so desires may speak for three minutes, answer questions, and pass the microphone to the next speaker.

Attendees will typically include political candidates and influential political, business, policy and grassroots leaders.

You are encouraged to bring any literature for distribution.

Steadfast,

Christopher Freind
“Freindly Fire”
Audaces fortuna iuvat
610-659-0098
CF@FreindlyFireZone.com

About Grover Norquist:

Mr. Norquist has been one of Washington’s most effective issues management strategists for over two decades. He is president of Americans for Tax Reform (ATR), a coalition of taxpayer groups, individuals and businesses opposed to higher taxes at the federal, state and local levels. ATR organizes the TAXPAYER PROTECTION PLEDGE, which asks all candidates for federal and state office to commit themselves in writing to oppose all tax increases. To date, 172 House members, and 34 Senators have taken the pledge. On the state level, 7 governors and over 1100 state legislators have taken the pledge.

In the words of Newt Gingrich, Grover Norquist is “the person who I regard as the most innovative, creative, courageous and entrepreneurial leader of the anti-tax efforts and of conservative grassroots activism in America . . . He has truly made a difference and truly changed American history.”

Mr. Norquist holds a Masters of Business Administration and a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics, both from Harvard University.

About Chris Freind:

Chris Freind, author of “Freindly Fire,” is an independent columnist and investigative reporter whose readers hail from six continents, thirty countries, and all fifty states.

He is a regular guest commentator on several Philadelphia-region talk radio stations.

Highlights of his investigative reports include:

*

Exposing the Delaware River Port Authority’s (DRPA) fiscal irresponsibility/ mismanagement and conflicts of interest, which resulted in the forced termination of a high-ranking official.

*

Highlighting Gov. Ed Rendell’s intimate relationship with Ballard Spahr (his former law firm), and large campaign donors, focusing on millions in secretive, no-bid state contracts received by such entities.
*

Breaking the story of secretive bailout talks between Philadelphia Media Holdings publisher (owner of the Inquirer and Daily News) and Gov. Rendell.
*

Examining highly-questionable practices of two leading candidates in Philadelphia District Attorney race; both men were later cited by the Philadelphia Ethics Board for these activities.
*

Detailing the conflicts regarding how the PA Turnpike Commission awards contracts, including those to a Turnpike Commissioner’s law firm.
*

Illustrating a Philadelphia criminal justice loophole that allowed a convicted felon, recaptured after unlawful flight, to be freed upon returning to Court.
*

Exposing the hypocrisy of Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig regarding the steroid controversy.
*

Investigative reports have been nationally recognized, most recently in Dick Morris’ New York Times Bestseller “Catastrophe” (15 citations), The Wall Street Journal, George Will’s syndicated column, National Review Online, the Media Research Center, and The Resident, one of Portugal’s leading newspapers.

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Friends-

Just a reminder that the kickoff Center-Right Coalition meeting, modeled after national tax-reform leader Grover Norquist’s successful format, is THIS THURSDAY, November 12, at the Union League in Philadelphia, with Mr. Norquist in attendance.

Light refreshments will be served at 7:00 AM, with the program going from 7:30 to 9:00 (or later). The Union League is located at 140 S. Broad Street, just two blocks south of City Hall. Even if you can join us for part of the meeting, your attendance and that of your colleagues, is most welcome.

The objective is to have everybody who is center-right to tell each other what they are doing, to share technology and tactics, and to tell stories regarding issues facing Pennsylvania and the nation.

Anyone who so desires may speak for three minutes on current initiatives, answer questions, and pass the microphone to the next speaker.

Attendees will typically include influential political, business, policy and grassroots leaders.

You are encouraged to bring any literature for distribution.

Steadfast,

Christopher Freind
“Freindly Fire”
Audaces fortuna iuvat
610-659-0098
cf@FreindlyFireZone.com

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CONGRATULATIONS TO THE NEW MEMBERS OF THE WEST CHESTER AREA SCHOOL BOARD!

Adsett, Carpenter, Pimley, Wingerter: Great for West Chester Area Schools

“We are concerned parents and taxpayers just like you. As your School Board members, we will use our professional experience and understanding of your concerns to make West Chester Area School District the best it can be for our children and the taxpayers.”

Vote4GreatSchools

Thanks to the voters in West Chester that chose substance over smears.

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Adsett, Carpenter, Pimley, Wingerter: Great for West Chester Area Schools

“We are concerned parents and taxpayers just like you. As your School Board members, we will use our professional experience and understanding of your concerns to make West Chester Area School District the best it can be for our children and the taxpayers.”

Vote4GreatSchools

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Among the top 50 drives on the planet, according to National Geographic.

A road trip through the Brandywine Valley offers a taste of American aristocracy. In the former country mansions of the ultrarich, travelers glimpse the early 20th-century extravagant lifestyle of a fascinating New World royalty. The du Ponts, one of the wealthiest American families, built estates graced by lovely gardens and filled with world-class art. E. I. du Pont, the first family member to leave France, came to America in 1800 and planted miniature fruit trees and other plants on a bluff overlooking the Brandywine River. His industrial innovations in making gunpowder resulted in a patent and a very prosperous business. Succeeding generations inherited his business and gardening genes, expanding into plastics and consumer products and creating extraordinary botanical collections.

(tip to Bill Lawrence)

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According to this link at the Delco Times, Steve Welch has been claiming he raised $250k since early July for his Congressional runs. First, the one for the seventh district. And now the race in the sixth district, to replace Jim Gerlach. Or maybe he was just talking about the seventh back then. It’s hard to keep straight.

Along with that $250k, he says he matched that amount with his own money.

The problem is, this appears not to be true at all. At least to me. Perhaps I’m missing something.

According to recently released campaign finance records, Steve Welch raised $18,450 during the period covered by that article…from people not named “Steven Welch”. This is a far cry from $250k. Heck, it’s more than a decimal point off! And he did not return a single donation he received while running for the seventh district.

In total he has raised $46,150 from forty reported contributors. Interestingly, almost half of this money is from outside of Pennsylvania. Only seven of those forty contributors, in fact, even reside in the district he aspires to represent.

He also claims to have hundreds of other contributors who have contributed less than $200. This means those “hundreds” have contributed $7,080. I suppose its possible he found three hundred people who gave him small amounts of money falling under the limit invoking identity disclosure. That model certainly worked for Obama and Ron Paul. But seeing how we haven’t even finished the 2009 cycle yet, he has virtually no name recognition, and he’s only been running in the sixth for a few weeks, it seems unusual.

The important contrast here is with Curt Schroder. He raised almost $110k in just the last thirty days from over 140 reported individuals.

This is a blow to the Welch campaign, and they are apparently trying to put lipstick on a pig when they talk about fundraising. There aren’t that many ways to say “I gave myself a LOT of money!” Welch’s narrative is supposed to be about the political outsider with a groundswell of support from within the district. He is also fighting off accusations that he doesn’t live in the district, and is hence less in tune with the voters there.

But Schroder was able to raise twice what Welch did from over 140 reported individuals, and well north of 300 people total. Welch’s war chest, on the other hand, is comprised of about 92% of his own money, and over half of what remains is from out of state.

In other words, 96% of his support, as represented by his allegedly positive fundraising numbers, comes from himself and people who don’t even live in Pennsylvania, let alone the district.

That’s an outsider message, I bet, he would rather not emphasize.

(This has also been covered at Midnight Blue, here.)

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ActBlue is a political action committee that has raised over $100 million to help people who answer the question “Want blue states?” in the affirmative.

In a post here I mentioned Steve Welch, GOP candidate for the Sixth Congressional District, had donated money to this PAC. Not long after posting this, Mr. Welch gave me a call to deny it. Said it wasn’t true. Also indicated he would send me his own resource reference to confirm this before the end of the day, yesterday.

I have records from two well-known campaign finance resources indicating this is so. We’re not talking about a lot. It was $300. Certainly a lot less than the $2500 he recently donated to Bob Asher’s PAC.

Well, I haven’t gotten information yet from Welch’s team, aside from the denial. So I have no reason, for now, to doubt the resources I have in front of me. The donation is from Steven Welch, President of Mitos Technologies. Candidate Welch founded that company in 2001, and sold it in 2007. The donation was in 2006, the same cycle he wrote a similar check to Joe Sestak, which he acknowledges.

But Welch is a busy guy. I’m sure he’ll get around to sending the resource clearing this up. Because unless he has some sort of explanation, it would have been insane for him to call me up and categorically deny it. But I do want to people to know I’m not making this stuff up. If Welch is correct, at least two sites have it wrong, for some reason.

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Mr. Cohen, of Montgomery County, has been telling people in the GOP State Committee and potential political opponents that he intends to run as a candidate for the sixth congressional seat. This is terrible news for Steve Welch.

The sixth district, which regularly makes the top ten list for oddly gerrymandered congressional seats, includes parts of Chester, Montgomery, and Berks counties. It even has a minuscule slice of Lehigh County– no disrespect to those folks!

Currently running on the GOP side we have State Representative Curt Schroder, a mainstream conservative enjoying bipartisan appeal with reformist legislation to his credit, and lifelong resident of Chester County. We have Ryan Costello, a solid candidate with low name recognition who is currently Recorder of Deeds for Chester County. We also have Steve Welch, a wealthy newcomer who was previously running in the Seventh District– Sestak’s former seat– who lives in Montgomery County, although his campaign epistles imply he is from Phoenixville in Chester County.

Why does all this geography matter?

Well, most of the votes in this district are from Chester County, with a big slice from Montgomery, and a smaller slice from Berks (and Lehigh) that often tend to be the tiebreaker between the two. Chester County is more conservative. Montgomery is more liberal. Berks can be tricky, as it can be both since Reading is included.

Cohen entering this race is bad, bad news for Welch. Welch is a progressive Montgomery County candidate. A former Democrat who wrote checks to Joe Sestak and powerhouse progressive PAC ActBlue, in a lot of ways he’s the ideal candidate for some middle of the road Montgomery County Republicans. Welch’s winning coalition is those folks, plus a strong showing in Reading.

But Cohen is also a middle of the road Montgomery County Republican. His winning coalition is the same as Welch’s.

So Welch, it turns out, can’t let the residency issue go away by simply admitting he lives in Montgomery County, and he is no more a resident of Phoenixville, politically and culturally, than a resident of Wynnewood is the same as a resident of Overbrook.

Welch will likely try to suggest anyone overly worried about where he lives is avoiding the issues. This takes chutzpah. Because for him to win this race, he is in fact the one required to dwell on where he lives. And he may even feel he has no choice but to misrepresent himself. And this undermines the alleged reasons to vote for him: His independence, the ability to avoid playing political games, his wealth giving him the freedom to just tell us like it is.

But if he doesn’t play it straight on the residency issue, he looks like a vacillating political opportunist who’s every action seems to conform to the desires of the same old party leaders in Harrisburg and D.C.

Finally, I haven’t been reading inside PA political tea leaves very long. Is it possible Cohen is just trying to ‘encourage’ Welch to make some donations to his favored political causes, with the appearance of such donations happily coinciding with Cohen’s exit from the race? I have absolutely no reason to believe this is so, but Cohen’s timing does seem odd. If it does turn out that way other potential candidates and interest groups may find it a useful case study.

UPDATE: Mr Welch just gave me a call, saying he has never given money to the progressive PAC ActBlue. I had heard differently, but perhaps it is a different Steve Welch. Will investigate further, and let you know what I find. It was good of him to give me a call to let me know.

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Nice.

Vicious and incompetent.

Opponents of the conservative candidates running for WCASD (West Chester Area School District) are planning to plant “negative lit” against the Republican candidates in this year’s November election for school board.

On Sunday, Sept 13 at 8PM, I received an email from Brian McGinnis, who is against the conservatives running for local office. He says, they are having a meeting to plan a “massive negative lit drop” and “We need to bring up the negatives and show the people in East Bradford just how right wing these candidates really are.”

How did I get this email from Brian?

Because the people who sent it out, must have confused me with someone else (Someone who has the same name as me. Although we have the same name, we are different, he is a regular participant of the Chester County Peace Movement demonstrations at the Chester County Courthouse. He’s a photographer by trade, he’s also a Democrat Committeeperson in Precinct North 2 in East Bradford. My guess is they intended the email to go to that Davis, and not me.

The email is damning. It is solid proof that certain people are going to hit below the belt and try to defame and smear conservatives that they don’t want elected. It’s despicable and must be exposed.

At couple hours later (at 10PM on Sept 13), I received a follow-up email from ”Fred Rothman” replying to Brian’s plan to drop negative literature at the home of Mark Pimley. Fred Rothman is a Democrate Committeeperson in Precinct South 1 in East Bradford. Rothman talks about Mark Pimley and dropping literature ”defaming him (& his wife)” for hosting a “fundraiser for the “R’s” school board campaign.”

Read it all.

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(This has been edited a little bit)

Candidate Welch:

I probably should have waited to call you, and I was a little nonplussed on the phone just now. If you genuinely think being a political outsider is a good thing, and really think candidates that would be strong fiscal conservatives in Washington, DC are what we need, then we are absolutely on the same page.

Which is why I find it so disappointing you have made the decision you have. By your own admission when we met at Irish Joe’s, you said Pat Meehan absolutely had a lot to learn from you on such matters. Pat Meehan, furthermore, is a consummate political insider. So, really, the argument you have made just doesn’t scan for me. But that could be because I know less about the seventh than I do about the sixth.

As for the polling I asked you about, like I said: The only thing that would persuade me is clear polling evidence that the race in the sixth is unwinnable for Rep. Schroder. Such evidence, I suspect, will be thin on the ground. But feel free to try and prove me wrong. I am pretty analytical as well.

You mentioned you don’t think you will get the party endorsement in your upcoming primary. Don’t write yourself off! I suspect you will have an ally in the current Chester County GOP chairman. He has, after all, been begging us committeepeople to wait to make our decisions on who to support. I don’t think he was saying that to wait for the PA 157 race to flesh out. At the same time, he has been begging us to help the party avoid a primary. Sounds to me like a pattern that works in your favor. You may not be as much a political outsider as you think, anymore.

Just so there is no confusion, I do think you are exactly the sort of candidate the GOP generally needs…in the seventh district. I was, you will recall, one of your first online advocates. I reached out to you moments after you announced, offering my help.

I am as annoyed as anyone by the selective “wait your turn” mentality in the Republican party. But at the same time being independently wealthy ought not be a requirement for public service, either. The alternative for excellent candidates unable to self-finance is climbing up the ladder. Nobody deserves a clear path to an office, of course. But if anyone does, it is highly competent, experienced, dedicated, and popular mainstream conservative public servants that work their way up, winning elections along the way. Not people who, while certainly an upgrade to a irresponsibly liberal Democrat, haven’t competed in elections, campaigned much, have political connections, and need to study on the area’s most important issues.

It is to your credit you called me to talk about it. I should have responded with more grace, and for that I apologize. [ed. I really wasn't all that awful. Just terse.] In all seriousness, though, this series of developments is causing me to rethink why I am involved at all. I became a committeeman three years ago to help make the party better. You may be certain this is a decision entirely driven by your priorities and choices. And I’m sure you’re correct. But the way events tracked also matches precisely what the influential members of the GOP wanted. The same ones that have created the mess we’re in now, and don’t even have election victories to show for it.

But for all I know, Rep. Schroder will decide he doesn’t want the hassle, and stay put. Which, frankly, I would advise him to do at this point. He’s gotten a kick to the groin he absolutely didn’t deserve. Regular voters who know and like him– and there are a lot of them– will feel disappointed, and you would have to work your butt off to earn their trust. But Rep. Schroder does valuable work in Harrisburg and it would be a shame to lose him. The risk isn’t worth it, I think. If things go down that way, you will be seeing a lot of me in your Phoenixville office.

If they don’t, I will help Curt. And, perhaps, encourage you to let me be your campaign manager for the PA 157 seat in 2012. We can run that race old-school, and grassroots. Save your money, and win at the same time.

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Thanks for the concurrance, Joe.

But here’s a poll for anyone who’s paying attention. This blog has over a dozen contributors from different parts of the state with different ideological tendencies. What do we have in common, though? We don’t run the Pennsylvania Republican party. Yet.

Is there a single one of us who thinks Welch moving to the sixth district is a good idea? There must be at least one! Bueller…Bueller…

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[cross-posted at http://keystoneconservative.com/]

At this point everyone has noticed Steve Welch’s site no longer says which congressional seat he seeks. As has been discussed, Mr. Welch was seeking to represent the seventh congressional district, the one recently vacated by Joe Sestak. For a number of reasons, though, he is now considering seeking the sixth congressional seat, the one vacated by Jim Gerlach. State Representative Curt Schroder has already announced for the sixth, and he is the candidate I support.

But the Delaware County Republican leadership is eager to clear the way for Pat Meehan, who mortally mismanaged his run for Governor. Meehan, we know, plans on announcing on Monday he is seeking the congressional seat in the seventh. I bear no ill-will for Meehan, but he does not have nearly the potential as a representative that both Welch and Schroder do.

Schroder is a nationally recognized state legislator with a track record of attracting bipartisan support for mainstream conservative reform. Nevertheless, he remains obviously conservative. Imagine that! A clear conservative with a handle on policy who enjoys broad bipartisan support! Importantly, his political career is such that while he enjoys a good working relationship with the Republican party, he does not owe his position to them. His circle is not overrun with rent-seekers and logrollers. He has, in fact, had confrontations with those people.

Steve Welch is a complete political outsider with a commanding personal biography, lots of money, excellent ideas on fiscal reform, and manifest charm. And, did I mention, lots of money? He, also, would not owe his success to anybody.

Meehan is a longtime prosecutor with no legislative experience. Also, importantly, the most pressing issues of our day surround financial matters and the promotion of regional economic growth, followed by healthcare. Rep. Schroder has a handle on these issues, and is the author of important legislation regarding them. Welch is a successful entrepreneur with an impressive track record of knowledge on these issues. Nobody would say these issues are in Pat Meehan’s wheelhouse. In fact, my conversations with Mr. Welch confirm he largely agrees on this analysis.

In my conversations with Mr. Welch, it is clear to me the two reasons he has for considering a run in the sixth rather than the seventh are A) He is terrified of the far-left carpetbagging sack of money named Pike who is, for now, the presumptive Democrat candidate in the sixth, and B) He needs to be convinced Schroder would be a better actual congresscritter than Meehan.

We have already made the case for B. But what about A?

I have heard the Republican party leadership in Pennsylvania and the House Republican Campaign Committee fear Schroder is too conservative to win in the sixth district, so they want Welch and his money– did I mention he has a lot of money?– to run there instead.

Over the last few days, Steve Welch will have gotten notices from real voters in the sixth concerning, in part, Schroder’s electability. Mr. Welch has heard from management consultants, and admittedly left-wing organic community gardeners. He has heard from leaders of the Republican Jewish Coaltition, and a hippie head of a majority Democrat borough’s Community Development Corporation. In short, he is hearing from a wide range of voters in the sixth district about how Curt Schroder can indeed win the seat.

Chester County represents the largest population within the sixth district, and Rep. Schroder has been winning elections in Chester County for years. Also, he not only lives in the district, but is a lifetime resident of it. This will be an important weapon against Pike, who will be seen as an outsider looking to buy a seat. Mr. Welch, while he does live really close to the district, doesn’t actually live in it. This will blunt this line of attack, which any voter can understand. In a battle between two rich outsiders, getting out the base becomes an important challenge for both. In that battle, Pike has the edge. The Democrat apparatus would be more squarely behind him, and the Dems have a slim registration advantage in the district. In the seventh, though, Welch lives in the district.

If Mr. Welch is wondering about electability, finally, I wonder how many regular voters in the seventh are begging him to run in the sixth because Meehan is so great? Not too many that aren’t part of the GOP apparatus, I bet. I’m sure he’s hearing from GOP Chairman Judge. Perhaps a bunch of comitteeman taking marching orders. And he might even be hearing from national figures that love the prospect of not having to raise money. But how have those seers been doing in general elections, lately? Not so well, in case you haven’t noticed. And what polling evidence do they have that Schroder is too conservative to win the sixth? Probably not much, since people don’t know who the heck Doug Pike is.

Working together, Mr. Welch and Rep. Schroder could make a commanding team. In different ways, they are outsiders. In different ways, they are highly competent. Working together, they can absolutely both win. Running against each other, though, is suicide for people who have as their primary interest the best possible mainstream conservative representation for an area that has been sorely lacking it for a while.

If you concur with this analysis, and want to encourage Mr. Welch to finish the job he started in the seventh, tell him yourself.

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/welchforpa?ref=nf

E-mail: steven@welchforpa.com

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7th Congressional District: A GOP Battle…Or An Uncontested Primary?

An Analysis

BY CHRIS FREIND

Pennsylvania’s 2010 election cycle is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in decades, with gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races taking center stage. And since several candidates in those contests are Congressmen vacating their seats, the focus on several U.S. House races has already begun to generate widespread interest.

Of particular intrigue are the political maneuverings in the Seventh District, which encompasses all of Delaware and parts of Chester and Montgomery counties. The two-term incumbent, Joe Sestak, has declared his candidacy for U.S. Senate, and will face 30-year senator Arlen Specter in a primary.

The open seat has already led to intense arm-twisting and finesse tactics by the Delaware County establishment to clear the field for its candidate on the Republican side – Pat Meehan.

*******

Despite the jockeying, there is still only one declared candidate in the GOP race – 32 year-old self-made millionaire Steve Welch. He has already opened a campaign office, launched a detailed website, and has been telling voters and party officials alike that he is in the race to stay, regardless of party endorsement.

A potential obstacle facing Welch is that he lives in the small Montgomery County slice of the district. The 7th has always had a Representative from Delaware County, and there are those who will vote on that basis, provincial as it may be.

Given the state of the economy, however, many trivialities will go out the window as voters cope with the worst recession in decades.

Former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan, who had ostensibly explored running for governor, withdrew from both that race and that of Lt. Governor last month, inexplicably making his announcement late on a Friday afternoon in August – not exactly prime time for a good PR opportunity.

In his statement, Meehan claimed that he was considering a congressional run, but stopped far short of announcing. This hedging should come as no surprise, as it was a major reason his “gubernatorial” bid never got off the ground. Rather than announcing for governor, he and his staff would spin meaningless rhetoric about his traveling the state listening to people’s concerns.

More than ever, voters are seeking bold and decisive leaders who provide direct, common-sense solutions. By playing coy and not announcing his gubernatorial run, Meehan lost significant support, especially in the fundraising category. Very few will donate to a candidate who cannot even decide whether to run.

This time, Meehan’s decision to not declare his candidacy is rooted in something much more basic: he would face a bruising primary against Welch, who, despite being new to the game, has the ability to self-fund. And that makes him very dangerous.

And if the GOP Machine didn’t view Welch as a serious threat, they would not be pulling out all the stops to get him out of the race.

Pat Meehan is the clear choice of the Delaware County pols, and will be the recipient of all the substantial power and money the Machine brings to the table. While the Delco boys have not exactly lit the world on fire with general election success (they haven’t delivered the county for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, and have lost the congressional seat and numerous state House races), they know how to win primaries. That is Meehan’s biggest asset.

But since Meehan is an untested candidate (his only “elected” position was Delaware County District Attorney, a position that, in political reality, is “appointed”), neither he nor the Machine wants a primary. As a result, a full-court press is on to get Welch out of the race – one way or another. Pressure from local, state and even national officials continues, in the hopes of clearing the field for Meehan.

Discussions have been held at the highest levels, with rumors swirling that Welch will either graciously bow out, or jump into the 6th Congressional District open seat race, which is in play after Congressman Jim Gerlach announced his bid for governor. Ironically, Gerlach’s decisiveness in announcing for governor was another major factor for Meehan’s hasty departure from that contest.

Welch has repeatedly told Freindly Fire that he is staying in the 7th District race, stating that it is his home, and that is where he will compete.

This is the smartest move Welch can make, for if he did decide to jump into the 6th, his candidacy would be over before it began, for several reasons.

First, he doesn’t live in the district. While one is legally permitted to run in a district in which he doesn’t reside, it is political suicide. He would be instantly labeled a carpet-bagging, business-as-usual opportunist trying to buy whatever congressional seat offers the least resistance. Welch would be thrown off his message of restoring fiscal sanity to Washington, and instead would find himself on the defensive for the entire campaign. And with 16-year State Representative Curt Schroder in the race to stay (he is giving up his seat), and whose district lies entirely within the 6th, Welch would face an opponent who already has a significant base of support.

While there is precedent for Pennsylvania candidates winning who moved into new districts shortly before their election (Rep. Alyson Schwartz and former Rep. Melissa Hart), they still physically moved. Even if Welch did move, he still would face the additional, and most likely insurmountable, obstacle of trying to explain his switch, since he has been so outspoken in his bid for the 7th. It is a situation from which he cannot hide.

While conventional wisdom states that Meehan will indeed run, that is far from decided. If Steve Welch, after weathering constant hounding to either drop out or run somewhere else, decides enough is enough and tells the Delco Machine that he is writing his own check for $3 million, and will raise an additional million, there is a better than even chance that Meehan will not run the gauntlet, leaving Welch unopposed.

The open question is whether Pat Meehan, more a political operative than candidate, has the stomach to engage in a tough primary. If he does, it will be a clash of political strategies. Welch will attempt to use cutting-edge technology to energize the younger base, articulating new, innovative ideas to get back on track. Meehan will rely on the strength of the Establishment, his name in the community, and the fact that he lives in the heart of Delaware County.

Should the race occur, and it would be an exciting one, November would prove to be interesting. Based on the district’s recent trends, a mild groundswell for Republicans in 2010 would give the GOP primary winner an even shot at taking back the seat.

Chris Freind, author of “Freindly Fire,” is an independent columnist and investigative reporter whose readers hail from six continents, thirty countries, and all fifty states. He can be reached at CF@FreindlyFireZone.com

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Anyone interested in securing the best possible representation for Southeastern Pennsylvania in Congress can help with just a few seconds of their time.

Curt Schroder is running to represent the 6th Congressional district, Jim Gerlach’s seat. He is a well-known conservative with nationally recognized state legislation to his credit. He also is an independent thinker with bipartisan appeal who does not owe his position to a cadre of big donors and rent-seekers.

Steven Welch is an entrepreneur with extensive business experience who comes from completely outside the sometimes nepotistic and self-defeating political system. From a middle-class background, he has earned a fair degree of wealth, and will be at least partly self-financed. Therefore he can be an independent conservative with bipartisan appeal as well.

Mr. Welch was running for the seventh congressional seat, currently held by Joe Sestak. Together, Welch and Schroder would make a great team.

Pat Meehan, though, has decided he can’t win a Governor’s race. So he wants to run for Sestak’s seat. Therefore some have decided it would be best for Welch to run for the sixth congressional seat, and hence against Curt Schroder in a primary.

This would be a bad idea for the people of Pennsylvania. We have two candidates that represent a great mainstream conservative change in our congressional delegation. Two faces that are largely new to the average voter, who the PA GOP can run in a 2010, a cycle likely to be dominated by anti-incumbent sentiment.

Mr. Welch implied to me that it would be about a week before he made up his mind. He also implied that if he were to be convinced that A) Curt Schroder would be a better congressman than Pat Meehan, and B) Rep. Schroder could win a general election race against a far left-wing, carpetbagging sack of inherited money named Pike, then Mr. Welch may decide to stick with running for the seventh congressional seat.

If you, like me, are merely interested in securing the best possible congressional representation for the people of Pennsylvania, tell Mr. Welch what you think. Point out he and Schroder would make a great team. Tell him all voters, Republicans, Democrats, and independents, want real reform in government, and that he and Rep. Schroder have the potential to lead us down that road.

Steven Welch has a Facebook page which currently appears less than hospitable to wall-posts. Give it a go, though:

http://es-la.facebook.com/welchforpa

His e-mail is steven@welchforpa.com

If you can play nice and reasonable, I would be happy to share his phone number as well. Contact me if you want to go that route, but remember: The goal is not to annoy, but to persuade.

Have at it, folks. In the early stages of an election regular voters can have a real impact. If you concur with my analysis, have at it. We have a few days to make our voices heard.

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